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Sens Underground Forums > Race to the playoffs

Better to start it sooner rather than later.

We're 10 points out of the Atlantic division top 3, so our playoff chances sits in one of the two wild card spots.

I've split the reaming games into 4 categories.

Must win games in 60 minutes or less = 11 games
In this category I included the to current wild card teams (Detroit and Toronto), two teams above us and below us (Carolina, NY Rangers, NJ and Columbus) and also the 2nd and 3rd teams in the Metropolitan division (Philadelphia and Washington) as they could fall into the battle for the wild card spots. These need to be won in regulation, if we lose, hopefully it's in OT or SO so we at least get a point.

Eastern Bottom 3 = 4 games
(NY Islanders, Florida, Buffalo). If we can't beat these teams, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Need at least 3/4 wins here

Divisional top 3 = 8 games
(Boston, Tampa Bay, Montreal) If we can get a .500 record here, that would be good.

Eastern top team = 2 games
(Pittsburgh) - 1 win out of 2 would be good.

Western teams = 13 games
sub category 1 - 9 road games
sub category 2 - 6 games against teams with less points than us (Nashville, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton)

Toronto currently holds the last wild card spot and is on pace for 88 points. Let say we set a target of 91 points, that leaves us 46 points to get in 38 games (.605 win percentage).

Eastern Bottom 3 (6/8 possible points, 40 points remaining)
Divisional top 3 (8/16 possible points, 32 points remaining)
Eastern Top team (2/4 possible points, 30 points remaining)
Western teams (12/26 possible points, 18 points remaining) We don't usually do well in the west..

So that means we need in the must win games category, we need 9 of 11 wins (regulation wins preferably) or 18 of 22 points if the balance of the games go somewhat indicated above. If we can win a few extra games in the west or against the divisional top three, then that leaves a bit of room in the must win games category.

No one said it was going to be easy, but those 11 must win games are key. Hopefully they start well on this western road trip and put a few points in the bank. The 5 game western road trip after the Olympics in March is also key. They need to get off to a good start after the Olympic break.

List of remaining games

Wed, 8 Jan 2014 - Senators at Avalanche (western conf)
Sat, 11 Jan 2014 - Senators at Predators (western conf)
Tue, 14 Jan 2014 - Senators at Wild (western conf)
Thu, 16 Jan 2014 - Canadiens at Senators (divisional top 3)
Sat, 18 Jan 2014 - Rangers at Senators (must win)
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 - Senators at Capitals (must win)
Thu, 23 Jan 2014 - Senators at Lightning (divisional top 3)
Fri, 24 Jan 2014 - Senators at Hurricanes (must win)
Tue, 28 Jan 2014 - Senators at Blue Jackets (must win)
Thu, 30 Jan 2014 - Lightning at Senators (divisional top 3)
Sat, 1 Feb 2014 - Senators at Maple Leafs (must win)
Mon, 3 Feb 2014 - Senators at Penguins (Eastern leader)
Tue, 4 Feb 2014 - Senators at Blues (western conf)
Thu, 6 Feb 2014 - Sabres at Senators (Eastern bottom 3)
Sat, 8 Feb 2014 - Senators at Bruins (divisional top 3)
Thu, 27 Feb 2014 - Red Wings at Senators (must win)
Sun, 2 Mar 2014 - Senators at Canucks (western conf)
Tue, 4 Mar 2014 - Senators at Oilers (western conf)
Wed, 5 Mar 2014 - Senators at Flames (western conf)
Sat, 8 Mar 2014 - Senators at Jets (western conf)
Mon, 10 Mar 2014 - Predators at Senators (western conf)
Sat, 15 Mar 2014 - Senators at Canadiens (divisional top 3)
Sun, 16 Mar 2014 - Avalanche at Senators (western conf)
Tue, 18 Mar 2014 - Rangers at Senators (must win)
Thu, 20 Mar 2014 - Lightning at Senators (divisional top 3)
Sat, 22 Mar 2014 - Senators at Stars (western conf)
Mon, 24 Mar 2014 - Senators at Lightning (divisional top 3)
Tue, 25 Mar 2014 - Senators at Panthers (Eastern bottom 3)
Fri, 28 Mar 2014 - Blackhawks at Senators (western conf)
Sun, 30 Mar 2014 - Flames at Senators (western conf)
Mon, 31 Mar 2014 - Hurricanes at Senators (must win)
Wed, 2 Apr 2014 - Islanders at Senators (Eastern bottom 3)
Fri, 4 Apr 2014 - Canadiens at Senators (divisional top 3)
Sat, 5 Apr 2014 - Senators at Rangers (must win)
Tue, 8 Apr 2014 - Senators at Islanders (Eastern bottom 3)
Thu, 10 Apr 2014 - Devils at Senators (must win)
Sat, 12 Apr 2014 - Maple Leafs at Senators (must win)
Sun, 13 Apr 2014 - Senators at Penguins (Eastern leader)

January 8, 2014 at 1:28 PM | Registered CommenterHomer
January 8, 2014 at 2:42 PM | Registered CommenterPost Draft Pan

And like a sucker I clicked on the link....
There's a lot of games there that the Senators need to win against teams they should be able to beat. (Hurricans, Islanders, Panthers, etc.) It's just a shame we had to play Sharks/Ducks/Kings while they were streaking earlier in the season. (The ducks are still streaking, I'm glad we don't play them again)

January 8, 2014 at 3:18 PM | Registered CommenterSpezzial Delivery

I was expecting to see Labru's name on the bottom of that long post. Good job Homer!

January 8, 2014 at 6:15 PM | Registered CommenterSens Dawg

Guess I should feel flattered dawg?

Good work homer, nice analysis. Do you intent to assess our progress every 10 games or so? Should be interesting.

January 9, 2014 at 2:02 AM | Registered Commenterdisappointed labru

was at 45 points, target of 91. So 46 points in 38 games needed.

Eastern Bottom 3 (6/8 possible points, 40 points remaining)

Divisional top 3 (8/16 possible points, 32 points remaining)

Eastern Top team (2/4 possible points, 30 points remaining)

Western teams (12/26 possible points, 18 points remaining) We don't usually do well in the west.
So far: 1-0-1 for 3 points

January 12, 2014 at 8:59 AM | Registered CommenterHomer

they passed the Laffs in the standings, Randy Carlyle is not happy

January 12, 2014 at 10:44 AM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

Must win games in 60 minutes or less = 11 games
(Detroit, Toronto, Carolina, NY Rangers, NJ, Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington)
So far: 2 games played - 1-1-0 for 2 points. 0 loser points to other teams

Eastern Bottom 3 = 4 games
(NY Islanders, Florida, Buffalo). If we can't beat these teams, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Need at least 3/4 wins here

Divisional top 3 = 8 games
(Boston, Tampa Bay, Montreal) If we can get a .500 record here, that would be good.
So far: 1 game played - 0-0-1 for 1 point

Eastern top team = 2 games
(Pittsburgh) - 1 win out of 2 would be good.

Western teams = 13 games
So far: 3 games played - 2-0-1 for 5 points

total 8 of possible 12 points (.667 win%) since Jan 8th

January 23, 2014 at 8:55 AM | Registered CommenterHomer

Habs - Wings are playing tonight.

Sens are tied with the Wings, while the Habs are 5 points ahead.

Going down he stretch, there will be times that you need to cheer against your instincts. Habs will need to win this one in regulation.

Caps-Devils are also playing tonight. That's pretty much a toss up, but it has to be in won regulation time.

January 24, 2014 at 11:49 AM | Registered CommenterHomer

According to this site. On Jan 31st Sens have a 41.7% chance of making the playoffs. Odds went up 5.7% after the win over Tampa
One thing I don't get on this site is that NJ has 1 point less and played one game more than Ottawa, but their odds of making the playoffs are 55.5%. Is Lou influencing the odd makers?

Even though some of the teams have changed groups (Montreal-Toronto for example), I haven't changed them in the grups below. Lets count those as must win games anyway.

Since Jan 8th.

Must win games in 60 minutes or less = 11 games
(Detroit, Toronto, Carolina, NY Rangers, NJ, Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington)
So far: 4 games played - 2-2-0 for 4 points. 0 loser points to other teams

Eastern Bottom 3 = 4 games
(NY Islanders, Florida, Buffalo). If we can't beat these teams, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Need at least 3/4 wins here

Divisional top 3 = 8 games
(Boston, Tampa Bay, Montreal) If we can get a .500 record here, that would be good.
So far: 3 game played - 1-0-2 for 4 points

Eastern top team = 2 games
(Pittsburgh) - 1 win out of 2 would be good.

Western teams = 13 games
So far: 3 games played - 2-0-1 for 5 points

Some tough games coming up before the Olympic break. Need to start February off to a good start with a win over the yard waste. Penguins and Blues are on back to back nights.

Ottawa @ Leafs
Ottawa @ Penguins
Ottawa @ Blues
Sabers @ Ottawa
Ottawa @ Bruins
Red Wings @ Ottawa

January 31, 2014 at 12:43 PM | Registered CommenterHomer

has to be the bad teams that NJ gets to play from their Division that Ottawa doesn't, that's one killer schedule coming up. Vancouver went 10-1-1 in December and had a killer January schedule coming up and it kilt them, so lets hope the same doesn't happen to Ottawa.

January 31, 2014 at 8:25 PM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

scoreboard watching. not a good night for Sens on Friday

Rangers and Carolina won
Detroit won over Washington in the SO
NJ got the loser point

February 1, 2014 at 8:39 AM | Registered CommenterHomer

This is gonna be a close one for a while. At this moment 7 teams are within 2 points of each other!

February 1, 2014 at 10:03 AM | Registered Commenterdisappointed labru

all Ovechkin does is score goals

February 2, 2014 at 3:21 PM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

Montoya beats other teams besides the Sens after all
Peg 2-Habs 1

February 2, 2014 at 3:44 PM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

Letang out 6 weeks after suffering stroke - Sportsnet.ca
sportsnet.ca
Pittsburgh Penguins defenceman Kris Letang will be out at least six weeks after suffering a stroke last week.

Wow!!!! a guy in his 20's who is in top shape and this happens.....

February 7, 2014 at 8:39 PM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

At the Olympic break Sens have a 35.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Must win games in 60 minutes or less = 11 games
(Detroit, Toronto, Carolina, NY Rangers, NJ, Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington)
So far: 5 games played - 2-3-0 for 4 points. 0 loser points to other teams

Eastern Bottom 3 = 4 games
(NY Islanders, Florida, Buffalo). If we can't beat these teams, we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Need at least 3/4 wins here
So far: 1 games played - 1-0-0 for 2 points

Divisional top 3 = 8 games
(Boston, Tampa Bay, Montreal) If we can get a .500 record here, that would be good.
So far: 4 game played - 1-1-2 for 4 points

Eastern top team = 2 games
(Pittsburgh) - 1 win out of 2 would be good.
So far: 1 games played - 0-0-1 for 1 point

Western teams = 13 games
So far: 4 games played - 3-0-1 for 7 points

We're doing well against the western teams (7/8 points), but not winning the must win games (4/10 points) against teams were in a playoff fight with.

We're sitting 1 point back of a playoff spot, but played a game more than Detroit and Columbus.

February 10, 2014 at 11:22 AM | Registered CommenterHomer

Chances of making the playoffs? 2.7%

This thread can now be closed.

March 18, 2014 at 10:17 PM | Registered CommenterHomer

TSN website headline--Siegel: Life suddenly sour for skidding Maple Leafs

except for pick me ups like this headline what do we have to look forward to?

March 20, 2014 at 9:26 AM | Registered Commentertjlincoln

The least the Sens could do is NOT drop down to the lottery favourites...

I'm personally looking forward to more callups from Bingo.

March 20, 2014 at 1:22 PM | Registered CommenterSens Dawg